Overall economic activity continued to hold up in November with demand conditions remaining robust, thanks to strengthening urban demand, but manufacturing and rural demand showed some signs of deceleration even as services remained strong, according to an article on the State of the Economy written by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) officials in the central bank's December bulletin.
In the wake of the FTA between India and the European Union, the United States has described the Europeans as 'very disappointing', saying they were unwilling to join Washington, DC in putting tariffs on New Delhi for its purchases of Russian oil because of this trade deal.
The wide-ranging sanctions imposed by the US on the Russian oil sector have started to dent near-term oil flows to India with state-owned Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) saying not enough cargoes are available for March.
India's crude oil imports from Russia strengthened in the first half of October, reversing a three-month slide in arrivals seen during July-September as refineries were back on full stream to meet festive demand, according to ship tracking data.
oil market remained under pressure and big gains are unlikely.
From the Sensex pack, Asian Paints, NTPC, Reliance Industries, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, Hindustan Unilever, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Adani Ports & SEZ, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, Titan and Bajaj Finance were the major gainers. Tech Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Zomato, Tata Motors, and IndusInd Bank were the laggards.
The best way for India to prepare is by preserving and strengthening the RBI's hard-won credibility, point out Rajeswari Sengupta and Vaishali Garga.
Cooking oil rates have already witnessed a rise of almost 25 per cent since last year
India's retail inflation, which has stayed below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) 4 per cent target in recent times, is likely to remain benign in the coming months, RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said in a speech, on Friday, which was uploaded on the central bank's website on Tuesday. Headline inflation dipped to multi-year lows of around 1.5-2.8 per cent in late 2025.
Government's fuel subsidy estimate was based on crude oil at $70.
Brent hit a session high of $114.69 a barrel, its loftiest since September last year.
WPI inflation data, trading activity of foreign investors and global cues would dictate trends in the stock market this week, analysts said.
Stock market sentiment is likely to remain optimistic going ahead, though some consolidation cannot be ruled out after the recent sharp rally in the benchmarks, analysts said. According to experts, the Nifty and Sensex could indeed move towards new record highs before the end of the year, if global cues stay supportive, crude oil prices remain benign and there is continued domestic earnings momentum.
From the 30-share pack, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra, Eternal, Power Grid, ITC, Tata Motors, Asian Paints and Hindustan Unilever were among the gainers. Among the laggards, Kotak Mahindra Bank tanked 4.57 per cent
A US official has stated that India's continued purchase of Russian oil is a point of contention in the relationship between the two countries, as it helps fund Russia's war efforts in Ukraine.
'An asset must generate income. Equities yield dividends, bonds pay coupons, deposits give interest, and real estate earns rent.' 'Gold, silver, and even Bitcoin produce no income, they merely store value. So, they should not be compared to productive assets.'
Equity market investors would track global trends, foreign fund movement and quarterly earnings in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Stock exchanges BSE and NSE will conduct a special Muhurat trading session on Tuesday, October 21.
The domestic stock market will continue to monitor the Israel-Iran conflict and its impact on global supplies besides prices of crude oil this week, analysts said. Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also drive investors' sentiment during the week.
Analysts expect Nifty to rise up by to 6 per cent in six months, with intermittent corrections likely due to global factors.
From the Sensex pack, Nestle, Tata Consultancy Services, IndusInd Bank, Asian Paints, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra, UltraTech Cement, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Hindustan Unilever were among the major laggards. Tata Steel, JSW Steel, HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, Power Grid and Mahindra & Mahindra were among the gainers.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded on Thursday after two days of decline, mirroring a rally in global markets as a US court blocked President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 320.70 points or 0.39 per cent to settle at 81,633.02.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its partners, such as Russia, collectively termed Opec+, have decided to cut crude oil production by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) from October onwards, at a meeting on Monday. In a step that may increase prices in India, the group has decided to reduce output quotas for October, after a fall in global oil demand outlook. The cut in output is equal to 0.1 per cent of global supply.
India on Thursday charged some of the oil producing nations and companies with building inventories that resulted in "unjustifiable" rise in crude prices globally and impacting the economic growth of developing nations.
Expecting oil prices to remain under pressure, Fitch Ratings said deregulation of diesel prices in October will help in lowering the under-recoveries (which is nothing but international petroleum prices minus the subsidised retail rates).
Among the Sensex firms, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Mahindra & Mahindra, Adani Ports, HCL Technologies, Eternal, Infosys, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Unilever and UltraTech Cement were the gainers. Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Kotak Mahindra Bank, PowerGrid and Tata Steel were among the laggards.
India's annual oil import bill could rise by $9-11 billion if the country is compelled to move away from Russian crude in response to US threats of additional tariffs or penalties on Indian exports, analysts said. India, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, has reaped significant benefits by swiftly substituting market-priced oil with discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India this week aims to secure energy supplies, stabilise defence deliveries and ensure bilateral trade continues smoothly despite strong Western sanctions, GTRI said on Tuesday.
Russia has welcomed India's decision to not support the price cap on Russian oil announced by G7 and its allies and offered it cooperation on leasing and building large-capacity ships to overcome the ban on insurance services and tanker chartering in the European Union and Britain to continue buying discounted oil. The offer came as Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak held a meeting with the Indian Ambassador to Moscow, Pavan Kapoor, on Friday. "The Deputy Prime Minister welcomed India's decision not to support the price cap on Russian oil, which was imposed on December 5 by the G7 countries and their allies," the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement.
Equity markets will keenly track outcome of the US Federal Reserve policy meeting this week amid heightened expectations of an interest rate cut along with WPI inflation data, analysts said. Any further development on the USndia trade front would also drive trends in the equity market, experts said.
India's top oil and gas producer ONGC on Friday reported a tripling of net profit in the June quarter as it earned record prices before the government slapped a tax on windfall profits arising from a global rally in energy rates. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation's (ONGC) standalone net profit at Rs 15,205.85 crore, or Rs 12.09 per share, in April-June, compared to Rs 4,334.75 crore, or Rs 3.45 a share, in the same period a year back, according to a stock exchange filing by the company. Sequentially, the profit was higher than the Rs 8,859.54 crore net profit of January-March.
Cooking gas or Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) price has been raised by Rs 50 per cylinder by distribution companies, Union Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Monday.
Trump announced that India and the US agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will charge a reduced reciprocal tariff on Delhi, lowering it from 25 per cent to 18 per cent.
Corporate margins and profits in India remain vulnerable to changes in crude oil prices in the international market. Historical quarterly data from listed companies (excluding banks, finance and insurance, oil and gas, and power sectors) indicate an adverse correlation between corporate margins and crude oil prices.
Russia's state-owned oil firm Rosneft has agreed to supply up to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil to Indian upstream oil and gas major Reliance Industries (RIL) in the largest-ever energy deal between the two countries, Reuters reported on Thursday. The 10-year agreement amounts to 0.5 per cent of global oil supply and is valued at roughly $13 billion per year at current prices, it said.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) on Tuesday reported halving of its March quarter net profit largely because of losses in the petrochemical business and shrinking margin after it announced a pre-election fuel price cut despite rising input costs. The net profit of Rs 4,837.69 crore in January-March compared to Rs 10,058.69 crore a year back and Rs 8,063.39 crore in the preceding October-December quarter, according to a stock exchange filing by the company.
India, the world's third largest oil consuming and importing nation, bought crude oil worth 49 billion euros from Russia in the third year of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, a global think tank said. India, which has traditionally sourced its oil from the Middle East, began importing a large volume of oil from Russia soon after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
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Among the Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance fell by nearly 3 per cent, the most among the 30 frontline companies. Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, NTPC, ICICI Bank and IndusInd Bank were the other major laggards. In contrast, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Maruti and Mahindra & Mahindra were the gainers.
'Trump had done a deal with the current regime minus Maduro. The current regime is giving Trump entry into Venezuelan oil. They are obeying him and doing whatever he says.' 'They are happy because they have saved their heads by sacrificing only two, Maduro and his wife. Thousands of Venezuelan military leaders would have been jailed or killed in American action had Maduro stayed in power.'
The decision to hike US H-1B visa application fee to $100,000, trade talks and the GST rate cut will be the key drivers for stock market movement this week, analysts said.
